GoldVNG

Plain-English meanings of the terms used in GoldVNG. Descriptive only — not advice and not a forecast.

Scores

Short-Term score (ST): A score from −100 to +100 describing whether current market pressure on gold leans up or down, on a days-to-weeks (about 1–3 month) pressure horizon. It is the equal-weight average of up to 5 factor scores.; In this app: Positive means pressure supportive for gold; negative means pressure against it. It describes the present and is not a forecast of the gold price. No smoothing is applied.
Real-yield change (ST Real Yield): The change in the US 10-year real yield over the last 21 trading days, compared with its usual size over the past year. A fall scores as supportive for gold and a rise as a headwind.; In this app: Source: US Treasury daily par real yield curve, 10-year. Each day's value enters the score from the next US business day (a one-business-day as-of lag); Treasury usually publishes it the same US evening.
Dollar change (ST USD basket B1-2022): The percentage change in the USD basket (B1-2022) over the last 21 trading days, compared with its usual size over the past year. A weaker dollar scores as supportive and a stronger dollar as a headwind.; In this app: Source: the USD basket (B1-2022): six exchange rates with BIS 2022 weights. It is not the ICE US Dollar Index. Daily values enter the score the same day.
10-day momentum (ST Momentum): Gold's return over the last 10 trading days divided by the size of move its recent volatility would imply over 10 days. Firm recent gains score as supportive and recent falls as a headwind.
Medium-term trend (ST Trend): The average of gold's volatility-adjusted 20-day and 60-day returns (each measured the same way as 10-day momentum). It reacts slowly and lags turning points by design.
CFTC positioning change (ST CFTC): The weekly change in managed-money net positioning in gold futures, as a share of open interest, from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report. A rise in net long positioning scores as supportive.; In this app: Weekly data, used 3 days after the report date.
Long-Term score (LT): A score from −100 to +100 describing whether the larger gold backdrop looks healthy or deteriorating, using slow factors that change over about 6–24 months. It is a 21-day average of 4 factors: real-yield regime, debt regime, slow geopolitical risk and price structure.; In this app: Official central-bank and mine data are not available; the long-term score is capped at ±55. Price structure adjusts the score by at most ±15 instead of counting as an equal member. With limited coverage the score is held within ±25.
Real-yield regime (LT Real Yield): Whether the 2-year (504-trading-day) average of the US 10-year real yield has risen or fallen over the last 126 trading days (about 6 months). Moves smaller than 0.15 percentage points count as flat and score 0; a falling average scores as supportive.
Debt regime (LT Debt): US federal debt as a percentage of nominal GDP, compared with the previous 20 quarters. A higher ratio than usual scores as supportive (fiscal-stress backdrop).; In this app: US Treasury 'Debt to the Penny' and BEA nominal GDP; quarterly, used with a delay of several months.
Slow geopolitical risk (LT Geopolitics): The 63-day average of a daily AI-based geopolitical risk index (AI-GPR), compared with the median and spread of its values over the previous 1,260 trading days (about 5 years). Elevated risk scores as supportive.; In this app: Used 5 days after the index date. Shown as unavailable while its data licence is being confirmed.
Price structure (LT Price Structure): The average of gold's volatility-adjusted 1-year and 2-year returns, showing whether the multi-year price path is intact. It lags by design.
Score scale (−100 to +100): Each component turns a standardised move (z-score, limited to ±3) into a score using 100 × tanh(z ÷ 1.5), so scores approach but never reach ±100. Positive means supportive for gold, negative means a headwind, and 0 is balanced.
Label bands: Each score has five label bands with cut points at +60, +20, −20 and −60. Short-Term and Long-Term each have their own label wording, shown on the card.; In this app: Exact rules: ≥ +60; ≥ +20; > −20; > −60; otherwise the lowest band.
Neutral / Mixed pressure: The Short-Term label for scores above −20 and below +20: the drivers roughly balance or are all small. It is a real reading; when there is not enough data the app shows no score instead.; In this app: The Long-Term equivalent is 'Mixed / Unclear backdrop'.
Confidence: A 0–100 measure of how complete, consistent and steady the inputs behind a score are, separate from the score's size. It averages four parts: agreement between components, coverage, a penalty when gold's 20-day volatility is high versus the past year, and stability over the last 5 trading days.; In this app: Bands: High 75+, Moderate 55–74, Low 35–54, Very Low under 35.
Coverage: How many of a score's inputs are available today. Short-Term is full with 4 or more of 5 inputs, limited with 1–3 (score held within ±25) and unavailable with none (no score shown).; In this app: Long-Term is full with 3 or more of 4 inputs including the debt regime, limited (held within ±25) with fewer, and unavailable (no score) with none. Full coverage is not complete evidence.
Radar / spiderweb chart: A chart that draws each factor score on its own axis, rescaled to 0–100 as (score + 100) ÷ 2. 50 is neutral, above 50 supportive and below 50 a headwind.; In this app: Short-term and long-term components are drawn as two separate webs and never combined.
SMA (21-day): Simple moving average: the plain average of the last 21 trading days. The Long-Term score is a 21-day SMA of its daily raw value, so it changes slowly; the Short-Term score is not smoothed.
z-score: How unusual a move is: the move divided by its typical size (standard deviation) over a trailing window, usually the previous 252 trading days (about a year) and 12 or 20 quarters for quarterly inputs. A z-score of 2 means about twice the usual size.
Momentum: The recent direction and strength of gold's own price move. In this app it is measured as a volatility-adjusted return: the return divided by recent volatility.
Data as of: The dates of the latest official data behind the score, for inputs that are published on a delay (real yields, CFTC positioning and debt data).; In this app: Shown under the score cards and in the Short-Term details.

Drivers & macro terms

Real yield (10-year TIPS, DFII10): The yield on 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): roughly the interest rate after inflation. The app uses the US Treasury daily par real yield curve, 10-year.; In this app: Daily; Treasury usually publishes each day's value the same evening (US time). The score uses each day's value from the next trading day.
Nominal vs real yield: A nominal yield is the quoted interest rate on an ordinary Treasury bond. A real yield is the yield on an inflation-protected bond, roughly the nominal yield minus the inflation rate priced in by markets (breakeven inflation).; In this app: '10Y' and '2Y' are shorthand for the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields; the scores use the real (inflation-protected) 10-year yield.
USD basket (B1-2022): The app's dollar measure: six exchange rates (euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, franc, krona) with BIS 2022 weights, rebased to 100 on 2 Jan 2003. It is not the ICE US Dollar Index.
bp (basis point): One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). A yield moving from 4.00% to 4.11% has risen 11 bp.
2-year Treasury yield: The yield on 2-year US Treasury notes, which is sensitive to changes in the market's view of Fed policy rates. The app uses the US Treasury daily par yield curve, 2-year.; In this app: Context only in the market summary; it is not a score input.
CFTC / COT report: The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, showing how groups of traders are positioned in futures markets. Data is measured on Tuesday and released on Friday.
GPR (geopolitical risk index): A daily index of geopolitical tension based on news coverage of wars, terrorism and related threats, published by Caldara and Iacoviello. The Long-Term geopolitics factor uses an AI-based daily variant (AI-GPR).; In this app: Updates arrive several days late, so GPR is often marked lagged.
Fed / FOMC: The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the US central bank. Its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets about eight times a year to set the policy interest rate, with the decision on the meeting's final day.; In this app: Some meetings include the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
CPI: The Consumer Price Index, the main monthly US inflation measure, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jobs report (NFP): The monthly US Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Its headline figure is nonfarm payrolls (NFP), the monthly change in jobs outside farming.
BLS: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes CPI and the jobs report. The app reads its release schedule for Watch Ahead dates.
TIPS ETF (TIP): The iShares TIPS Bond ETF, a traded fund that holds US inflation-protected Treasury bonds.; In this app: Context only in the market summary's event windows. Never used in the scores.

Markets & data

XAU/USD: The price of one troy ounce of gold in US dollars. XAU is the currency code for gold.
Spot gold price (header price): The price for immediate delivery of gold. The header shows an XAU/USD quote when available, with its own time stamp.; In this app: The scores use daily closing prices, not the header quote.
Lagged / stale data: A value whose latest date is earlier than the period it describes, because its source publishes later than the market day. The app marks it 'lagged', shows its own date and never fills gaps with invented numbers.; In this app: Typical delays: real yield about 1 business day, CFTC 3 days, GPR several days, debt data several months.
As-of date: The date of the latest data used for a number. Each score, line and input shows its own as-of date because sources update on different schedules.
NZ time and ET: Event times are shown in New Zealand time, with the US Eastern Time (ET) equivalent. A US release often falls on the next calendar day in New Zealand.